Buying a House is Great for the Realtor

It's an unquestioned, forgone conclusion for most people that every American aspires to home ownership. The advice I hear is that "Building equity in a house is a good investment vs. throwing money away renting."

I've owned a home. The realtor who both sold it to me AND sold it for me made 5 TIMES the money that I did on the transaction. She never had one dollar tied up in it and made out like a bandit. I couldn't buy a damn thing for 8 years because I was "building equity."

A house was not a good investment for me. Is it a good investment for you?

Buying a House Delays Your FI

Here's how to test for success: a house is a good investment IF you reach Financial Independence (FI) SOONER than if you had rented.

But the math shows unequivocally that you cannot. There are two reasons:

1. Returns Are Too Low

Returns on housing average 3.7%. Housing prices also include 6% realtor fees (read: back-end load) on the sale.

With 3% inflation you must hold the house for 8.6 years just to break-even [ 6% / (3.7%-3.0%) ]. That's if you pay cash.

If you take out a mortgage at 4.6%, then you can't even START breaking-even until you pay off the house. By that time, you're deep in the hole with 30+ years of equity that you overpaid for by 3.9% every year [ 3.7% - 3.0% - 4.6% = -3.9% ].

Side note: You can't make money by paying down debt. You make money by investing.

2. Opportunity Cost Is Too High

Stock market returns average 11.7%. The money you set aside for a house incurs an opportunity cost of 8.0% per year. Here's what both investments amount to in 12 years (adjusted for inflation):

$100,000 down payment appreciates to $108,467

$100,000 in the stock market increases to $264,601

Let's assume your mortgage payments + maintenance + property taxes are just as cheap as a rent payment (even though they aren't). Building equity doesn't figure in (see previous point).

Investing in a house forgoes an inflation-adjusted gain of $156,134. That's just crazy.

Buying a house DELAYS your arrival at Financial Independence. Invest the down payment in index funds (stocks and bonds) and rent instead.